Modeling the Transition of Energy and Transport

To achieve the climate goals, the use of fossil fuels both in electricity and heat production as well as in transport must be reduced. So that measures to reduce CO2 emissions meet with acceptance among the broader population, the positive aspects must outweigh any potentially negative effects – such as on employment, mobility or prosperity. That is why political decisions ought to be based – wherever possible – on sound empirical findings, and their impact on people’s everyday lives and the overall economy precisely gauged.

Innovative statistical methods

This is the starting point for the major new research project: Thanks to increasing digitalization, more and more data are available that are collected automatically in different places and at different times. To derive relevant and reliable forecasts for the energy and transport sectors from this, the researchers involved will develop innovative statistical methods for analyzing such spatio-temporal data. “The new methods and the data acquired will enable us to forecast power loads and grid faults more accurately, for example, but also allow us to contribute to a better understanding of individual energy consumption and mobility behavior. In this context, we also want to analyze the impact of environmental policy on energy prices, as well as improve logistics network planning and supply chain management,” says Professor Roland Fried from the Department of Statistics at TU Dortmund University, spokesperson for the new TRR. Later, it should also be possible to transfer the methods developed within the project to other sectors.

Interdisciplinary cooperation

Twenty-nine scientists from statistics, mathematics, computer science, econometrics, geoinformatics, logistics, electrical engineering and energy management will collaborate in the interdisciplinary TRR – including 12 researchers from TU Dortmund University from the following departments: Statistics; Electrical Engineering and Information Technology; Mechanical Engineering; Business and Economics. Apart from TU Dortmund University as the speaker university and Ruhr University Bochum, the University of Duisburg-Essen, as the third university in the University Alliance Ruhr, is also participating. Further partners are Fachhochschule Dortmund, the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Universität Hamburg, the University of Münster, and RWI – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research. Professor Holger Dette from the Faculty of Mathematics at Ruhr University Bochum is the TRR’s deputy spokesperson.

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